Editors note: I do prefer inserting links in these posts, but I also have a real job, and trying to blurt these out more regularly in the new year requires some concessions.
I’m admittedly transfixed by this speaker’s race. Perhaps it’s because for the first time in eons, we have something resembling actual debate on the floor of the US House… the closest we’ll see to Question Time in our lifetime.
Yesterday, I posited that Kevin McCarthy was near extinction in his quixotic quest for the Speakership. I’m not so sure today, primarily because of this (my reaction follows)…
Trump is on the worst losing streak in recent American political history. He has zero momentum, camped out playing golf in West Palm, hawking NFTs and looking generally miserable. He really cannot afford another loss. Furthermore, to doubt he has unique and acute political instincts, especially when speaking to the base or MAGA legislators, is lying to oneself. Trump went from total non-commitment last night, even throwing our the “we’ll see what happens” old chestnut of fatalism…. to throwing his capital back AGAIN to the McCarthy candidacy.
Maybe I’m wrong, and Trump will simply pivot to “Kevin was always a loser and didn’t FIGHT” should this keep dragging, but I’m not so certain. A McCarthy win on a 4th or 5th vote today would be trumpeted by the former President as a HUGE win, and used as a rallying cry for his floundering campaign - “you see, there is nobody who can get these things done as I can.” Couple this with galvanizing the loyalty of McCarthy and his sycophantic allies, and Trump’s supernatural ability to make his constituency compartmentalize out ALL the negatives…. I’m simply stating that I can see this scenario play out.
Or maybe I’m wrong.